Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.101014 0.114643 0.129407 0.146588 0.166030 0.187350 0.212503
2026-01-04 0.079152 0.096773 0.117289 0.142936 0.174140 0.210883 0.257452
2026-01-11 0.064468 0.084377 0.109138 0.142187 0.185148 0.239124 0.312152
2026-01-18 0.053848 0.075147 0.103334 0.143346 0.198693 0.272598 0.378905
2026-01-25 0.042908 0.063643 0.092751 0.136556 0.200827 0.291741 0.430323
2026-02-01 0.034065 0.053541 0.082454 0.128451 0.199816 0.306431 0.478122
2026-02-08 0.027972 0.046450 0.075378 0.123885 0.203234 0.328066 0.539812
2026-02-15 0.023041 0.040319 0.068767 0.118918 0.205186 0.347725 0.601724
2026-02-22 0.020232 0.037206 0.066520 0.120706 0.218456 0.387629 0.703465
2026-03-01 0.016993 0.032770 0.061294 0.116468 0.220632 0.409070 0.776884
2026-03-08 0.014493 0.029248 0.057115 0.113401 0.224372 0.433772 0.860199
2026-03-15 0.012505 0.026355 0.053629 0.111042 0.229021 0.460788 0.952233
2026-03-22 0.011266 0.024805 0.052611 0.113632 0.244354 0.511749 1.102241
2026-03-29 0.009858 0.022650 0.050019 0.112566 0.252097 0.548954 1.230907
2026-04-05 0.008805 0.021082 0.048408 0.113350 0.264003 0.596912 1.391369
2026-04-12 0.007979 0.019883 0.047410 0.115354 0.279034 0.654211 1.583047
2026-04-19 0.006834 0.017709 0.043813 0.110678 0.277819 0.674881 1.693835
2026-04-26 0.005788 0.015579 0.039954 0.104679 0.272387 0.684879 1.780993
2026-05-03 0.005039 0.014070 0.037357 0.101385 0.273138 0.709979 1.910508
2026-05-10 0.004374 0.012658 0.034764 0.097636 0.272064 0.730392 2.031800
2026-05-17 0.004029 0.012068 0.034233 0.099358 0.285967 0.791839 2.273922
2026-05-24 0.003531 0.010940 0.032040 0.096051 0.285395 0.814674 2.413810
2026-05-31 0.003130 0.010022 0.030276 0.093658 0.287022 0.843877 2.577343